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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Schaub won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1490

Brendan SchaubvsGabriel GonzagaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrendan Schaub: WrestlervsGabriel Gonzaga: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Schaub is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub

Red Corner

Gabriel Gonzaga

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12

vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13

SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14

latest

Gabriel Gonzaga

oldest →

vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricGabriel Gonzaga

2.92

Strikes / min

2.12

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

57%

Strike defense

57%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

2.80

72%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan SchaubGabriel Gonzaga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -104.0|Blue +104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetGabriel Gonzaga

By target zone

26% acc · 94%

Head

24% acc · 57%

38% acc · 6%

Body

80% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 32%

By position

24% acc · 83%

Distance

32% acc · 89%

62% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Schaub rounds

even

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

Round 1Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:05

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 199

Sig Strikes

37 / 110

26.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

53 / 199

Total Strikes

37 / 110

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 1	0
1	Brendan Schaub	18 / 72	18 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Gonzaga	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 1	0
2	Brendan Schaub	18 / 65	18 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Gabriel Gonzaga	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0	1
3	Brendan Schaub	17 / 62	17 / 62	0 / 1	0

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12