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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Schaub won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Brendan Schaub
Elo1351

Brendan SchaubvsChris TuchschererUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brendan Schaub is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Tuchscherer has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Brendan Schaub has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brendan Schaub has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub
Red Corner
VS
Chris Tuchscherer
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
1354
Elo
1351
43
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12
W
vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14
latest
Chris Tuchscherer
oldest →
L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Feb 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricChris Tuchscherer
2.92
Strikes / min
1.35
2.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.17
57%
Strike defense
47%
2.32
TDs / 15 min
1.19
72%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.70Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1500Strikes18.5 vs 12.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.0
Brendan SchaubChris Tuchscherer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Chris Tuchscherer(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetChris Tuchscherer

By target zone

10
83% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

2
50% acc · 20%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
0
6
100% acc · 60%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brendan Schaub rounds
0
even
0
Chris Tuchscherer rounds
Round 1Brendan Schaub edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
10 / 12
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
83%
Sig Str %
20%
15 / 17
Total Strikes
1 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Tuchscherer1 / 51 / 50 / 00
1Brendan Schaub10 / 1215 / 170 / 00

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10

Chris Tuchscherer

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2