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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Schaub won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Brendan Schaub
Elo1490

Brendan SchaubvsChase GormleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:47

Style matchupBrendan Schaub: WrestlervsChase Gormley: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brendan Schaub has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brendan Schaub has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub
Red Corner
VS
Chase Gormley
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1354
Elo
1490
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
196 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12
W
vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14
latest
Chase GormleyNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricChase Gormley
2.92
Strikes / min
3.60
2.22
Strikes absorbed / min
6.03
57%
Strike defense
44%
2.32
TDs / 15 min
3.12
72%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.70Δ 3.13 — meaningful gap-2.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes12.0 vs 8.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Brendan SchaubChase Gormley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Chase Gormley(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.1|Blue +136.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetChase Gormley

By target zone

25
69% acc · 100%
Head
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

9
60% acc · 36%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
11
69% acc · 44%
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brendan Schaub rounds
0
even
0
Chase Gormley rounds
Round 1Brendan Schaub edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
25 / 36
Sig Strikes
2 / 6
69%
Sig Str %
33%
30 / 41
Total Strikes
2 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chase Gormley2 / 62 / 60 / 20
1Brendan Schaub25 / 3630 / 410 / 00

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10

Chase Gormley

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights1