← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1494

Brendan SchaubvsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:10

Style matchupBrendan Schaub: WrestlervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Schaub has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Schaub

Red Corner

Ben Rothwell

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1354

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan SchaubL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Minotauro Nogueira · Aug 11

vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13

SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14

latest

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan SchaubMetricBen Rothwell

2.92

Strikes / min

3.71

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

57%

Strike defense

47%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

0.68

72%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan SchaubBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Schaub(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -140.1|Blue +140.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan SchaubTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

53% acc · 100%

Head

40% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 78%

Distance

42% acc · 63%

100% acc · 22%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

Ground

33% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Schaub rounds

even

Ben Rothwell rounds

Round 1Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 17

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

52%

Sig Str %

47%

9 / 17

Total Strikes

8 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Rothwell	8 / 17	8 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Brendan Schaub	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 0	0

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16