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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alan Jouban won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1359
Brendan O'Reilly
Elo1493

Brendan O'ReillyvsAlan JoubanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Style matchupBrendan O'Reilly: WrestlervsAlan Jouban: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Jouban has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alan Jouban has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
  • Alan Jouban has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan O'Reilly
Red Corner
VS
Alan Jouban
Blue Corner
+415
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-525
(84%)
1359
Elo
1493
39
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'0"
175.26 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan O'Reilly
oldest →
L
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Aug 14
W
vs Vik Grujic · May 15
L
vs Dong Hyun Ma · Dec 16
latest
Alan Jouban
oldest →
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17
L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18
L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19
W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan O'ReillyMetricAlan Jouban
1.90
Strikes / min
5.67
2.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
39%
Strike defense
60%
2.22
TDs / 15 min
0.51
36%
Takedown defense
58%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 2.77 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1518Strikes28.5 vs 36.8Takedowns3.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.1
Brendan O'ReillyAlan Jouban

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Brendan O'Reilly(4 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -134.3|Blue +134.3
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan O'ReillyTargetAlan Jouban

By target zone

3
25% acc · 38%
Head
22
73% acc · 69%
4
100% acc · 50%
Body
9
100% acc · 28%
1
100% acc · 13%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

3
33% acc · 38%
Distance
11
73% acc · 34%
5
71% acc · 63%
Clinch
16
84% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Ground
5
83% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brendan O'Reilly rounds
0
even
1
Alan Jouban rounds
Round 1Alan Jouban edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:46
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
8 / 17
Sig Strikes
32 / 40
47%
Sig Str %
80%
12 / 21
Total Strikes
37 / 45
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Jouban32 / 4037 / 450 / 00
1Brendan O'Reilly8 / 1712 / 211 / 10

Brendan O'Reilly

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13