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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Wilkinson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Brendan LoughnanevsMike WilkinsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · Friday, December 14, 2012Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Mike Wilkinson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brendan Loughnane wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Mike Wilkinson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Loughnane at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Loughnane has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brendan Loughnane has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Brendan Loughnane has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Loughnane

Red Corner

Mike Wilkinson

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan LoughnaneNo prior UFC fights on record.

Mike Wilkinson

oldest →

SUBvs Rony Jason · Jun 13

KOvs Niklas Backstrom · Oct 14

vs Makwan Amirkhani · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan LoughnaneMetricMike Wilkinson

6.23

Strikes / min

2.35

6.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.70

53%

Strike defense

35%

1.50

TDs / 15 min

0.92

92%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-1.35

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Loughnane(1 fights)Mike Wilkinson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan LoughnaneTargetMike Wilkinson

By target zone

47% acc · 48%

Head

23% acc · 54%

92% acc · 15%

Body

90% acc · 17%

93% acc · 37%

Leg

64% acc · 30%

By position

61% acc · 89%

Distance

31% acc · 83%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

58% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Loughnane rounds

even

Mike Wilkinson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Brendan Loughnane edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:01

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Brendan Loughnane edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:53

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 119

Sig Strikes

54 / 159

63%

Sig Str %

34%

96 / 142

Total Strikes

119 / 240

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 12

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Wilkinson	14 / 40	44 / 77	1 / 3
1	Brendan Loughnane	20 / 29	26 / 36	0 / 0
2	Mike Wilkinson	21 / 65	28 / 72	0 / 5
2	Brendan Loughnane	30 / 48	38 / 57	0 / 0
3	Mike Wilkinson	19 / 54	47 / 91	0 / 4
3	Brendan Loughnane	25 / 42	32 / 49	0 / 2

Brendan Loughnane

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1

Mike Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4