Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1550

Elo1493

Brendan AllenvsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:47

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsTom Breese: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Tom Breese has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tom Breese has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Tom Breese

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1550

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Tom Breese

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16

KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18

KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20

SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricTom Breese

3.59

Strikes / min

3.34

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

47%

Strike defense

60%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.5|Blue -57.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Layoff

Red -509.0|Blue +509.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetTom Breese

By target zone

65% acc · 85%

Head

100% acc · 15%

Body

80% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 10%

Distance

0% acc

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

70% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Tom Breese rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control4:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 29

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

68%

Sig Str %

80%

38 / 52

Total Strikes

5 / 6

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:13

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Breese	4 / 5	5 / 6	0 / 1	0
1	Brendan Allen	20 / 29	38 / 52	0 / 1	0

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8