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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R3

Elo1550

Elo1473

Brendan AllenvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:38

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(88.2%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brendan Allen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1550

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Paul CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricPaul Craig

3.59

Strikes / min

2.50

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

47%

Strike defense

43%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

1.43

56%

Takedown defense

35%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.6|Blue -77.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

70% acc · 81%

Head

30% acc · 50%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

67% acc · 33%

By position

71% acc · 38%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

79% acc · 59%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:49

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control4:47

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 43

Sig Strikes

6 / 14

75.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

52 / 64

Total Strikes

13 / 21

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:58

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	3 / 8	7 / 12	0 / 0	1
1	Brendan Allen	14 / 19	20 / 26	2 / 2	1
2	Paul Craig	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 1	0
2	Brendan Allen	14 / 19	28 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Paul Craig	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 1	0
3	Brendan Allen	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0	1

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20