Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1502

Brendan AllenvsKyle DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsKyle Daukaus: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kyle Daukaus has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Kyle Daukaus

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1550

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Kyle Daukaus

oldest →

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22

KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricKyle Daukaus

3.59

Strikes / min

3.32

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

47%

Strike defense

42%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

2.08

56%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenKyle Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetKyle Daukaus

By target zone

56% acc · 76%

Head

57% acc · 85%

90% acc · 22%

Body

60% acc · 9%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

50% acc · 32%

Distance

54% acc · 56%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

68% acc · 61%

Ground

65% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Kyle Daukaus rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:32

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:42

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 3Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:23

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:22Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 66

Sig Strikes

34 / 58

61.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

79 / 109

Total Strikes

92 / 127

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

7:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Daukaus	5 / 10	11 / 17	1 / 2
1	Brendan Allen	16 / 27	29 / 42	0 / 0
2	Kyle Daukaus	22 / 36	48 / 62	1 / 1
2	Brendan Allen	17 / 26	26 / 37	0 / 0
3	Kyle Daukaus	7 / 12	33 / 48	1 / 2
3	Brendan Allen	8 / 13	24 / 30	0 / 0

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8