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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R2

Elo1550

Elo1510

Brendan AllenvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:38

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1550

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricKevin Holland

3.59

Strikes / min

4.24

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

47%

Strike defense

50%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.79

56%

Takedown defense

57%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.6|Blue -40.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

37% acc · 70%

Head

52% acc · 64%

100% acc · 10%

Body

83% acc · 23%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

60% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 50%

Distance

46% acc · 55%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

57% acc · 40%

Ground

83% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control1:54

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 22

Sig Strikes

22 / 38

43.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

23 / 41

Total Strikes

37 / 55

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

66%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	14 / 18	19 / 24	0 / 0	1
1	Brendan Allen	2 / 5	6 / 10	2 / 3	3
2	Kevin Holland	8 / 20	18 / 31	1 / 1	0
2	Brendan Allen	8 / 17	17 / 31	0 / 0	1

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27