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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · Decision R3

Elo1550

Elo1513

Brendan AllenvsEdmen ShahbazyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Edmen Shahbazyan

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsEdmen Shahbazyan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edmen Shahbazyan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Edmen Shahbazyan

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1550

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

latest

Edmen ShahbazyanW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs AJ Dobson · Mar 24

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 24

KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25

vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25

KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricEdmen Shahbazyan

3.59

Strikes / min

3.80

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

47%

Strike defense

49%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

1.62

56%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.20

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.9|Blue -37.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetEdmen Shahbazyan

By target zone

38% acc · 69%

Head

49% acc · 92%

63% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

60% acc · 3%

By position

45% acc · 89%

Distance

49% acc · 94%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

71% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Edmen Shahbazyan rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:16

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edmen Shahbazyan edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:02

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control0:10

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 194

Sig Strikes

90 / 180

44.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

91 / 196

Total Strikes

90 / 180

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edmen Shahbazyan	22 / 38	22 / 38	0 / 0
1	Brendan Allen	20 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 2
2	Edmen Shahbazyan	32 / 59	32 / 59	0 / 0
2	Brendan Allen	28 / 64	29 / 65	0 / 1
3	Edmen Shahbazyan	36 / 83	36 / 83	0 / 1
3	Brendan Allen	41 / 80	41 / 80	1 / 1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 43% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights15