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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · S-DEC R5

Elo1550

Elo1492

Brendan AllenvsChris CurtisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsChris Curtis: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chris Curtis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Chris Curtis

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1550

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 23

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricChris Curtis

3.59

Strikes / min

5.52

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

47%

Strike defense

54%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

64%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenChris Curtis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Chris Curtis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.6|Blue -58.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetChris Curtis

By target zone

42% acc · 64%

Head

47% acc · 77%

74% acc · 22%

Body

76% acc · 20%

94% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

108

50% acc · 96%

Distance

122

51% acc · 98%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Chris Curtis rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:17

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:07

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:03

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control1:24

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:14

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

112 / 222

Sig Strikes

124 / 241

50.6%

Sig Str %

50.6%

128 / 242

Total Strikes

141 / 261

6 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

58.8%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:05

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Curtis	13 / 41	16 / 44	0 / 0
1	Brendan Allen	22 / 40	24 / 42	1 / 1
2	Chris Curtis	46 / 80	46 / 80	0 / 0
2	Brendan Allen	29 / 66	29 / 66	0 / 1
3	Chris Curtis	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 0
3	Brendan Allen	23 / 42	31 / 52	1 / 1
4	Brendan Allen	25 / 39	28 / 44	2 / 3
4	Chris Curtis	21 / 44	21 / 44	0 / 0
5	Chris Curtis	21 / 31	35 / 48	0 / 0
5	Brendan Allen	13 / 35	16 / 38	2 / 7

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11