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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Curtis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1550

Elo1492

Brendan AllenvsChris CurtisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Curtis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:58

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsChris Curtis: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Chris Curtis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -365 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chris Curtis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Chris Curtis

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1550

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricChris Curtis

3.59

Strikes / min

5.52

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

47%

Strike defense

54%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

64%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenChris Curtis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Chris Curtis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.6|Blue -58.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetChris Curtis

By target zone

49% acc · 60%

Head

58% acc · 62%

100% acc · 23%

Body

91% acc · 33%

88% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

59% acc · 91%

Distance

64% acc · 80%

80% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Chris Curtis rounds

Round 1Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:18

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 71

Sig Strikes

61 / 90

64%

Sig Str %

68%

44 / 72

Total Strikes

64 / 96

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Curtis	31 / 49	34 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Brendan Allen	22 / 45	23 / 46	0 / 2	1
2	Chris Curtis	30 / 41	30 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Brendan Allen	21 / 26	21 / 26	0 / 1	0

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11