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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R1

Elo1550

Elo1453

Brendan AllenvsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:39

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Bruno Silva is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Bruno Silva has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Bruno Silva

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1550

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricBruno Silva

3.59

Strikes / min

3.86

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

47%

Strike defense

41%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.77

56%

Takedown defense

74%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.3|Blue -97.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

49% acc · 80%

Head

52% acc · 85%

83% acc · 17%

Body

60% acc · 15%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 50%

Distance

48% acc · 80%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

53% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Bruno Silva rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control2:29

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 56

Sig Strikes

20 / 38

53%

Sig Str %

52%

40 / 69

Total Strikes

24 / 42

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bruno Silva	20 / 38	24 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Brendan Allen	30 / 56	40 / 69	0 / 2	1

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23