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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Brendan AllenvsAnthony HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsAnthony Hernandez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Anthony Hernandez has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Brendan Allen

Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1550

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · May 23

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brendan AllenMetricAnthony Hernandez

3.59

Strikes / min

4.57

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

47%

Strike defense

51%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

5.88

56%

Takedown defense

68%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap+1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brendan AllenAnthony Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brendan Allen(10 fights)Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.4|Blue -20.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brendan AllenTargetAnthony Hernandez

By target zone

42% acc · 57%

Head

71% acc · 100%

100% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 71%

Distance

71% acc · 40%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Ground

75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brendan Allen rounds

even

Anthony Hernandez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:09

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:23Control

Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:44

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:04Control

Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:05

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 26

Sig Strikes

30 / 42

67.3%

Sig Str %

69%

53 / 71

Total Strikes

72 / 91

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 8

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

10:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Hernandez	3 / 5	10 / 13	1 / 2	0
1	Brendan Allen	8 / 13	30 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Hernandez	13 / 16	25 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Brendan Allen	1 / 1	6 / 8	0 / 0	1
3	Anthony Hernandez	14 / 21	37 / 49	2 / 5	0
3	Brendan Allen	5 / 12	17 / 25	0 / 1	0

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12