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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Parker Porter won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1497

Braxton SmithvsParker PorterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Parker Porter won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:10

Style matchupBraxton Smith: Pressure fightervsParker Porter: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Parker Porter wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Parker Porter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Parker Porter at -176 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Parker Porter enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Parker Porter has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Braxton Smith has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Braxton Smith

Red Corner

Parker Porter

Blue Corner

+148

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-176

(64%)

1495

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Braxton SmithNo prior UFC fights on record.

Parker PorterL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chase Sherman · Aug 21

vs Alan Baudot · Feb 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 22

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Braxton SmithMetricParker Porter

6.46

Strikes / min

6.55

11.54

Strikes absorbed / min

6.32

32%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.35

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-5.08Δ 5.31 — meaningful gap+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Braxton SmithParker Porter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Braxton Smith(1 fights)Parker Porter(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Braxton SmithTargetParker Porter

By target zone

46% acc · 93%

Head

67% acc · 96%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 48%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Braxton Smith rounds

even

Parker Porter rounds

Round 1Parker Porter edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 29

Sig Strikes

25 / 37

48%

Sig Str %

67%

14 / 29

Total Strikes

37 / 62

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Parker Porter	25 / 37	37 / 62	0 / 1	0
1	Braxton Smith	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 1	0

Braxton Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights1

Parker Porter

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8