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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1511

Brandon VeravsJon JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:19

Style matchupBrandon Vera: Well-roundedvsJon Jones: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jon Jones has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Vera

Red Corner

Jon Jones

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1352

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon VeraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eliot Marshall · Oct 11

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 12

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Aug 13

latest

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon VeraMetricJon Jones

3.03

Strikes / min

4.38

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

52%

Strike defense

64%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.89

59%

Takedown defense

95%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon VeraJon Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Vera(4 fights)Jon Jones(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -159.1|Blue +159.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon VeraTargetJon Jones

By target zone

60% acc · 60%

Head

64% acc · 82%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 9%

50% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

25% acc · 20%

Distance

33% acc · 9%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 60%

Ground

69% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Vera rounds

even

Jon Jones rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 8

Sig Strikes

11 / 17

62%

Sig Str %

64%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

26 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jon Jones	11 / 17	26 / 33	2 / 3	0
1	Brandon Vera	5 / 8	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Brandon Vera

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19