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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Vera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1351

Brandon VeravsEliot MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Vera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brandon Vera wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Brandon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Vera at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Vera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eliot Marshall has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Eliot Marshall has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Vera

Red Corner

Eliot Marshall

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1352

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon VeraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jon Jones · Mar 10

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 12

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Aug 13

latest

Eliot MarshallL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vladimir Matyushenko · Mar 10

KOvs Luiz Cane · Mar 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon VeraMetricEliot Marshall

3.03

Strikes / min

1.93

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

52%

Strike defense

67%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.47

59%

Takedown defense

79%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon VeraEliot Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Vera(4 fights)Eliot Marshall(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +363.0|Blue -363.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon VeraTargetEliot Marshall

By target zone

31% acc · 24%

Head

30% acc · 62%

55% acc · 18%

Body

89% acc · 38%

68% acc · 58%

Leg

0% acc

By position

41% acc · 55%

Distance

25% acc · 38%

82% acc · 27%

Clinch

64% acc · 43%

60% acc · 18%

Ground

44% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Vera rounds

even

Eliot Marshall rounds

Round 1Brandon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:56

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brandon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:16

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Eliot Marshall edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:58

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 65

Sig Strikes

21 / 55

53%

Sig Str %

38.7%

55 / 88

Total Strikes

79 / 115

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:10

Ctrl Time

2:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eliot Marshall	9 / 24	17 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Vera	15 / 28	21 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Eliot Marshall	3 / 7	17 / 21	0 / 2	0
2	Brandon Vera	9 / 13	22 / 27	1 / 1	0
3	Eliot Marshall	9 / 24	45 / 62	1 / 1	2
3	Brandon Vera	9 / 24	12 / 27	0 / 1	0

Brandon Vera

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Eliot Marshall

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3