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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Siyar Bahadurzada won · SUB R3

Elo1359

Elo1377

Brandon ThatchvsSiyar BahadurzadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Siyar Bahadurzada won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:11

Model Prediction: Brandon Thatch wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Siyar Bahadurzada wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Thatch at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Thatch

Red Corner

Siyar Bahadurzada

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1359

Elo

1377

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon ThatchL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13

KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13

SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15

SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16

latest

Siyar BahadurzadaL2 streak

oldest →

vs John Howard · Dec 13

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

KOvs Luan Chagas · Apr 18

vs Curtis Millender · Dec 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon ThatchMetricSiyar Bahadurzada

2.70

Strikes / min

2.91

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

52%

Strike defense

49%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

1.32

50%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon ThatchSiyar Bahadurzada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Thatch(6 fights)Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.7|Blue +17.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -560.0|Blue +560.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon ThatchTargetSiyar Bahadurzada

By target zone

48% acc · 53%

Head

57% acc · 80%

56% acc · 17%

Body

83% acc · 18%

82% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

49% acc · 70%

Distance

37% acc · 21%

86% acc · 20%

Clinch

76% acc · 23%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

73% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Thatch rounds

even

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

Round 1Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:27

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

34Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:03Control

Round 3Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 53

Sig Strikes

84 / 138

49%

Sig Str %

60.3%

57 / 85

Total Strikes

170 / 235

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

8:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	26 / 49	34 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Thatch	20 / 32	27 / 40	1 / 2	0
2	Siyar Bahadurzada	34 / 48	71 / 92	2 / 2	0
2	Brandon Thatch	8 / 14	24 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Siyar Bahadurzada	24 / 41	65 / 86	1 / 1	1
3	Brandon Thatch	2 / 7	6 / 11	0 / 0	0

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8