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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · SUB R1

Elo1359

Elo1445

Brandon ThatchvsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Niko Price won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:30

Model Prediction: Brandon Thatch wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Thatch at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brandon Thatch is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Thatch

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1359

Elo

1445

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon ThatchL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13

KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13

SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15

SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon ThatchMetricNiko Price

2.70

Strikes / min

5.11

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

52%

Strike defense

48%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

1.06

50%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon ThatchNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Thatch(6 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -86.1|Blue +86.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon ThatchTargetNiko Price

By target zone

44% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 17%

80% acc · 50%

Leg

67% acc · 33%

By position

45% acc · 63%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

100% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

33% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Thatch rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:01

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

57%

Sig Str %

37%

9 / 15

Total Strikes

18 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	6 / 16	18 / 30	1 / 4	2
1	Brandon Thatch	8 / 14	9 / 15	0 / 0	2

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19