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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Brandon Royval won · S-DEC R5
Elo1511
Brandon Royval
Elo1526
Tatsuro Taira

Brandon RoyvalvsTatsuro TairaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsTatsuro Taira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval
Red Corner
VS
Tatsuro Taira
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1511
Elo
1526
33
Age
26
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval
oldest →
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23
W
vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24
L
vs Joshua Van · Jun 25
L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25
W
SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26
latest
Tatsuro Taira
oldest →
W
KOvs Carlos Hernandez · Dec 23
W
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24
W
SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25
W
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25
L
KOvs Joshua Van · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricTatsuro Taira
5.54
Strikes / min
2.87
4.25
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
43%
Strike defense
44%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
3.57
45%
Takedown defense
46%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.29Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1558 vs 1589Strikes4.5 vs 3.0Takedowns0.8 vs 2.7Sub Atts1.20 vs 1.60Form0.4 vs 1.0
Brandon RoyvalTatsuro Taira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Brandon Royval(10 fights)Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -15.4|Blue +15.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetTatsuro Taira

By target zone

114
53% acc · 92%
Head
34
37% acc · 81%
10
63% acc · 8%
Body
5
100% acc · 12%
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 7%

By position

97
48% acc · 78%
Distance
38
41% acc · 90%
11
92% acc · 9%
Clinch
0
0% acc
16
94% acc · 13%
Ground
4
80% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Brandon Royval rounds
0
even
2
Tatsuro Taira rounds
Round 1Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:10Control
Round 3Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes56
Takedowns2
Control0:57
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 4Tatsuro Taira edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:29Control
Round 5Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control1:26
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
124 / 232
Sig Strikes
42 / 99
45%
Sig Str %
47.6%
172 / 287
Total Strikes
80 / 143
3 / 3
TDs
6 / 15
100%
TD %
46.4%
3
Sub Att
1
2
Rev
0
2:23
Ctrl Time
12:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tatsuro Taira10 / 2211 / 241 / 30
1Brandon Royval17 / 5517 / 550 / 00
2Tatsuro Taira5 / 729 / 342 / 20
2Brandon Royval3 / 1411 / 220 / 00
3Tatsuro Taira5 / 217 / 230 / 41
3Brandon Royval56 / 7881 / 1052 / 21
4Tatsuro Taira8 / 1318 / 251 / 30
4Brandon Royval5 / 116 / 120 / 00
5Brandon Royval43 / 7457 / 931 / 12
5Tatsuro Taira14 / 3615 / 372 / 30

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights13

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10