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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · S-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1494

Brandon RoyvalvsRogerio BontorinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsRogerio Bontorin: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Royval at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Rogerio Bontorin

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1511

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Rogerio Bontorin

oldest →

vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19

vs Ray Borg · Feb 20

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21

vs Matt Schnell · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricRogerio Bontorin

5.54

Strikes / min

2.63

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

43%

Strike defense

50%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.90

45%

Takedown defense

51%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon RoyvalRogerio Bontorin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.3|Blue -16.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetRogerio Bontorin

By target zone

22% acc · 53%

Head

35% acc · 57%

60% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 7%

36% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 36%

By position

27% acc · 70%

Distance

52% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

39% acc · 28%

Ground

17% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

Round 1Rogerio Bontorin edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Rogerio Bontorin edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 3Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:43

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 132

Sig Strikes

28 / 58

34%

Sig Str %

50.3%

81 / 174

Total Strikes

39 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 9

—

TD %

93.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

7:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rogerio Bontorin	10 / 20	10 / 21	2 / 2	0
1	Brandon Royval	9 / 50	18 / 60	0 / 0	0
2	Rogerio Bontorin	9 / 14	10 / 15	4 / 5	0
2	Brandon Royval	12 / 23	20 / 31	0 / 0	1
3	Rogerio Bontorin	9 / 24	19 / 35	2 / 2	0
3	Brandon Royval	19 / 59	43 / 83	0 / 0	2

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6