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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · SUB R1

Elo1511

Elo1465

Brandon RoyvalvsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:14

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Royval at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Matt Schnell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1511

Elo

1465

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricMatt Schnell

5.54

Strikes / min

4.07

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

43%

Strike defense

55%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.60

45%

Takedown defense

43%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon RoyvalMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.7|Blue -45.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

27% acc · 64%

Head

31% acc · 75%

67% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 25%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 93%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

40% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 39

Sig Strikes

12 / 33

35%

Sig Str %

36%

14 / 39

Total Strikes

15 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Schnell	12 / 33	15 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Royval	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 0	1

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18