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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1558

Brandon RoyvalvsManel KapeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsManel Kape: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manel Kape at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Manel Kape has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Manel Kape

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1511

Elo

1558

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Manel KapeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricManel Kape

5.54

Strikes / min

5.04

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

43%

Strike defense

57%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.40

45%

Takedown defense

81%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon RoyvalManel Kape

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Manel Kape(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetManel Kape

By target zone

50% acc · 29%

Head

60% acc · 35%

75% acc · 35%

Body

83% acc · 29%

75% acc · 35%

Leg

86% acc · 35%

By position

65% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 88%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Manel Kape rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 26

Sig Strikes

17 / 23

65%

Sig Str %

73%

17 / 26

Total Strikes

18 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manel Kape	17 / 23	18 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Royval	17 / 26	17 / 26	0 / 0	0

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11