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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · Submission R3

Elo1511

Elo1500

Brandon RoyvalvsLone'er KavanaghUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

Submission · Round 3 · 3:40

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Brandon Royval

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Brandon Royval at +183 American odds · hypothetical only

+$183 profit

$283 total returned

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsLone'er Kavanagh: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lone'er Kavanagh wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Lone'er Kavanagh has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Lone'er Kavanagh has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lone'er Kavanagh has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Lone'er Kavanagh

Blue Corner

+183

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-222

(69%)

1511

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon RoyvalL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

latest

Lone'er Kavanagh

oldest →

vs Jose Ochoa · Nov 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Mar 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Aug 25

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricLone'er Kavanagh

5.54

Strikes / min

4.13

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

43%

Strike defense

56%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.12

45%

Takedown defense

94%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.64

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Lone'er Kavanagh(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.9|Blue -10.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetLone'er Kavanagh

By target zone

53% acc · 93%

Head

49% acc · 55%

100% acc · 5%

Body

89% acc · 30%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

67% acc · 14%

By position

47% acc · 65%

Distance

56% acc · 61%

85% acc · 13%

Clinch

77% acc · 18%

82% acc · 21%

Ground

60% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Lone'er Kavanagh rounds

Round 1Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control1:15

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control3:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 152

Sig Strikes

56 / 94

59%

Sig Str %

58.7%

146 / 218

Total Strikes

63 / 101

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 2

61%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:53

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	19 / 34	19 / 34	1 / 1	0
1	Brandon Royval	32 / 59	49 / 76	1 / 2	0
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	34 / 55	39 / 60	0 / 1	0
2	Brandon Royval	31 / 66	58 / 95	1 / 3	0
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	3 / 5	5 / 7	0 / 0	1
3	Brandon Royval	21 / 27	39 / 47	1 / 1	2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Lone'er Kavanagh

Odds

-222

Market-implied probability

Brandon Royval 34%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Brandon Royval (model pick · research)$283

Lone'er Kavanagh$145

34% market-implied · model 51% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at +183 · never rewritten

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Lone'er Kavanagh

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5