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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1599

Brandon RoyvalvsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsJoshua Van: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joshua Van has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1511

Elo

1599

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Durden · Dec 24

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricJoshua Van

5.54

Strikes / min

8.43

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

43%

Strike defense

58%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.82

45%

Takedown defense

75%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon RoyvalJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.6|Blue +88.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

179

42% acc · 83%

Head

138

59% acc · 68%

81% acc · 10%

Body

86% acc · 18%

78% acc · 7%

Leg

97% acc · 14%

By position

205

45% acc · 95%

Distance

181

67% acc · 89%

63% acc · 5%

Clinch

74% acc · 10%

Ground

38% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes87

Takedowns0

Control0:00

74Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes86

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

78Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

215 / 467

Sig Strikes

204 / 305

44.7%

Sig Str %

66.3%

216 / 468

Total Strikes

209 / 311

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joshua Van	52 / 79	52 / 79	0 / 0
1	Brandon Royval	42 / 116	42 / 116	0 / 0
2	Joshua Van	74 / 106	77 / 109	0 / 0
2	Brandon Royval	87 / 174	87 / 174	0 / 0
3	Joshua Van	78 / 120	80 / 123	0 / 0
3	Brandon Royval	86 / 177	87 / 178	0 / 0

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11