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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1487

Elo1526

Brandon MorenovsTatsuro TairaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:24

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsTatsuro Taira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brandon Moreno has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Tatsuro Taira

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1487

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Moreno

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Carlos Hernandez · Dec 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricTatsuro Taira

3.84

Strikes / min

2.87

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

59%

Strike defense

44%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

3.57

65%

Takedown defense

46%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoTatsuro Taira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.4|Blue +39.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetTatsuro Taira

By target zone

57% acc · 89%

Head

55% acc · 82%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

47% acc · 78%

Distance

37% acc · 25%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

76% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Tatsuro Taira rounds

Round 1Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:33Control

Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 17

Sig Strikes

28 / 48

51.5%

Sig Str %

44%

9 / 17

Total Strikes

45 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

4:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatsuro Taira	2 / 9	18 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Brandon Moreno	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	1
2	Tatsuro Taira	26 / 39	27 / 40	1 / 3	0
2	Brandon Moreno	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10