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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Brandon Moreno won · U-DEC R5

Elo1487

Elo1498

Brandon MorenovsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Moreno at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Steve Erceg

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1487

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Steve Erceg

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricSteve Erceg

3.84

Strikes / min

4.64

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

1.13

65%

Takedown defense

67%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoSteve Erceg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.1|Blue +11.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetSteve Erceg

By target zone

43% acc · 66%

Head

38% acc · 78%

72% acc · 20%

Body

46% acc · 9%

92% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

50% acc · 98%

Distance

115

41% acc · 99%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Steve Erceg rounds

Round 1Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:27

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:58

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 176

Sig Strikes

116 / 279

50%

Sig Str %

41.6%

95 / 182

Total Strikes

119 / 282

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Erceg	25 / 68	25 / 68	0 / 0
1	Brandon Moreno	21 / 40	21 / 40	0 / 0
2	Steve Erceg	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 1
3	Steve Erceg	20 / 50	20 / 50	0 / 0
3	Brandon Moreno	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0
4	Brandon Moreno	19 / 35	21 / 37	0 / 3
4	Steve Erceg	25 / 57	26 / 58	0 / 0
5	Steve Erceg	19 / 56	21 / 58	0 / 0
5	Brandon Moreno	18 / 31	22 / 35	1 / 1

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9