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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Lone'er Kavanagh won · U-DEC R5

Elo1487

Elo1500

Brandon MorenovsLone'er KavanaghUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Lone'er Kavanagh won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsLone'er Kavanagh: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Lone'er Kavanagh wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Lone'er Kavanagh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lone'er Kavanagh at +166 American odds

+$166 profit

$266 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lone'er Kavanagh has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Lone'er Kavanagh

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+166

(38%)

1487

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Moreno

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

latest

Lone'er KavanaghL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Ochoa · Nov 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Mar 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Aug 25

SUBvs Brandon Royval · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricLone'er Kavanagh

3.84

Strikes / min

4.13

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

1.12

65%

Takedown defense

94%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoLone'er Kavanagh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Lone'er Kavanagh(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.1|Blue +13.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetLone'er Kavanagh

By target zone

38% acc · 65%

Head

38% acc · 62%

71% acc · 19%

Body

75% acc · 19%

93% acc · 16%

Leg

90% acc · 20%

By position

45% acc · 87%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

71% acc · 13%

Clinch

71% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Lone'er Kavanagh rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:21

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:08

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control2:51

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 168

Sig Strikes

97 / 205

49.6%

Sig Str %

49.6%

134 / 229

Total Strikes

136 / 245

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 0
1	Brandon Moreno	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	42 / 83	42 / 83	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 1
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	17 / 44	20 / 47	0 / 0
3	Brandon Moreno	16 / 40	31 / 56	0 / 3
4	Lone'er Kavanagh	8 / 14	29 / 35	0 / 0
4	Brandon Moreno	9 / 15	31 / 42	0 / 2
5	Brandon Moreno	11 / 19	29 / 37	0 / 2
5	Lone'er Kavanagh	12 / 19	27 / 35	0 / 1

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Lone'er Kavanagh

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5