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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Brandon Royval won · S-DEC R5
Elo1487
Brandon Moreno
Elo1511
Brandon Royval

Brandon MorenovsBrandon RoyvalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsBrandon Royval: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Moreno at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brandon Moreno has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brandon Moreno has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Royval
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1487
Elo
1511
32
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon MorenoL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 23
W
vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24
W
vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25
L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25
L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26
latest
Brandon Royval
oldest →
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24
L
vs Joshua Van · Jun 25
L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25
W
SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricBrandon Royval
3.84
Strikes / min
5.54
3.64
Strikes absorbed / min
4.25
59%
Strike defense
43%
1.36
TDs / 15 min
0.65
65%
Takedown defense
45%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.20Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1585 vs 1540Strikes3.9 vs 4.3Takedowns1.7 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.10Form0.0 vs -0.1
Brandon MorenoBrandon Royval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Brandon Royval(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -24.0|Blue +24.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetBrandon Royval

By target zone

48
38% acc · 43%
Head
97
22% acc · 67%
37
73% acc · 33%
Body
38
70% acc · 26%
27
82% acc · 24%
Leg
10
53% acc · 7%

By position

103
54% acc · 92%
Distance
142
28% acc · 98%
7
41% acc · 6%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 2%
2
67% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Brandon Moreno rounds
1
even
2
Brandon Royval rounds
Round 1Brandon Moreno edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Brandon Moreno edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:37
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control0:27
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
49Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 5Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control1:50
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
112 / 211
Sig Strikes
145 / 510
54%
Sig Str %
27.4%
119 / 219
Total Strikes
177 / 556
3 / 5
TDs
1 / 2
55.3%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:54
Ctrl Time
0:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brandon Royval12 / 4312 / 430 / 00
1Brandon Moreno15 / 2315 / 230 / 00
2Brandon Royval18 / 8722 / 910 / 00
2Brandon Moreno22 / 4522 / 461 / 10
3Brandon Royval25 / 7926 / 810 / 10
3Brandon Moreno17 / 3117 / 312 / 30
4Brandon Moreno29 / 5829 / 580 / 10
4Brandon Royval49 / 16160 / 1791 / 10
5Brandon Royval41 / 14057 / 1620 / 00
5Brandon Moreno29 / 5436 / 610 / 00

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights13