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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexandre Pantoja won · S-DEC R5

Elo1487

Elo1523

Brandon MorenovsAlexandre PantojaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsAlexandre Pantoja: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Alexandre Pantoja

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricAlexandre Pantoja

3.84

Strikes / min

4.38

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

2.79

65%

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoAlexandre Pantoja

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.3|Blue +36.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetAlexandre Pantoja

By target zone

133

58% acc · 90%

Head

106

43% acc · 82%

100% acc · 9%

Body

91% acc · 16%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

60% acc · 2%

By position

128

58% acc · 87%

Distance

104

44% acc · 81%

86% acc · 8%

Clinch

62% acc · 10%

64% acc · 5%

Ground

86% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:37

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns2

Control1:23

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:37

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 4Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:24

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:04Control

Round 5Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

147 / 245

Sig Strikes

129 / 274

61%

Sig Str %

47%

167 / 265

Total Strikes

161 / 323

2 / 4

TDs

6 / 11

50%

TD %

60.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:01

Ctrl Time

8:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexandre Pantoja	28 / 50	42 / 75	0 / 3
1	Brandon Moreno	22 / 32	36 / 46	0 / 2
2	Alexandre Pantoja	33 / 74	36 / 77	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	41 / 77	41 / 77	2 / 2
3	Alexandre Pantoja	23 / 48	25 / 52	2 / 3
3	Brandon Moreno	26 / 47	29 / 50	0 / 0
4	Brandon Moreno	31 / 48	34 / 51	0 / 0
4	Alexandre Pantoja	20 / 50	23 / 56	3 / 4
5	Alexandre Pantoja	25 / 52	35 / 63	1 / 1
5	Brandon Moreno	27 / 41	27 / 41	0 / 0

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18