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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1523

Brandon MorenovsAlexandre PantojaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsAlexandre Pantoja: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Moreno

Red Corner

Alexandre Pantoja

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1487

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon MorenoMetricAlexandre Pantoja

3.84

Strikes / min

4.38

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

2.79

65%

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon MorenoAlexandre Pantoja

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.3|Blue +36.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon MorenoTargetAlexandre Pantoja

By target zone

28% acc · 71%

Head

44% acc · 73%

80% acc · 9%

Body

41% acc · 9%

60% acc · 20%

Leg

78% acc · 18%

By position

34% acc · 96%

Distance

45% acc · 87%

29% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

88% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Moreno rounds

even

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:05

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:11

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 133

Sig Strikes

79 / 168

33%

Sig Str %

46.3%

50 / 140

Total Strikes

96 / 187

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

22%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexandre Pantoja	33 / 61	49 / 78	0 / 0
1	Brandon Moreno	17 / 45	17 / 45	1 / 3
2	Alexandre Pantoja	26 / 62	27 / 64	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	18 / 50	23 / 57	0 / 1
3	Alexandre Pantoja	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
3	Brandon Moreno	10 / 38	10 / 38	1 / 3

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18