Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Davis won · SUB R2

Elo1438

Elo1436

Brandon DavisvsRandy CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Davis won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:12

Style matchupBrandon Davis: Pressure fightervsRandy Costa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Brandon Davis wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Brandon Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Davis at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Davis enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Randy Costa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brandon Davis threatens submissions; Randy Costa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Randy Costa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Davis

Red Corner

Randy Costa

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1438

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon DavisL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Sep 18

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 19

vs Giga Chikadze · Sep 19

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Oct 21

vs Mana Martinez · Oct 22

latest

Randy CostaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19

KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21

KOvs Tony Kelley · Dec 21

SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon DavisMetricRandy Costa

4.68

Strikes / min

6.53

4.62

Strikes absorbed / min

7.58

58%

Strike defense

58%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.00

57%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon DavisRandy Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Davis(9 fights)Randy Costa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon DavisTargetRandy Costa

By target zone

30% acc · 57%

Head

42% acc · 80%

55% acc · 17%

Body

73% acc · 17%

90% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

37% acc · 86%

Distance

45% acc · 96%

83% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Davis rounds

even

Randy Costa rounds

Round 1Randy Costa edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:08

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Randy Costa edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:08

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 88

Sig Strikes

46 / 101

36.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

40 / 93

Total Strikes

49 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Costa	34 / 79	36 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Davis	29 / 69	33 / 73	0 / 0	0
2	Randy Costa	12 / 22	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Brandon Davis	6 / 19	7 / 20	0 / 0	1

Brandon Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6