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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brando Pericic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1564
Brando Pericic
Elo1454
Elisha Ellison editorial illustration

Brando PericicvsElisha EllisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Brando Pericic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:55

Model Prediction: Brando Pericic wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Brando Pericic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brando Pericic at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brando Pericic is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Elisha Ellison has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Brando Pericic has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brando Pericic has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brando Pericic
Red Corner
VS
Elisha Ellison
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1564
Elo
1454
31
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brando PericicW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Louie Sutherland · Mar 26
W
KOvs Shamil Gaziev · May 26
latest
Elisha Ellison
oldest →
L
KOvs Gable Steveson · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brando PericicMetricElisha Ellison
11.00
Strikes / min
1.57
4.26
Strikes absorbed / min
15.13
58%
Strike defense
40%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+6.74Δ 20.30 — meaningful gap-13.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes12.9 vs 1.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Brando PericicElisha Ellison

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401475151015451580← oldermost recent →
Brando Pericic(3 fights)Elisha Ellison(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +109.4|Blue -109.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brando PericicTargetElisha Ellison

By target zone

23
55% acc · 79%
Head
2
25% acc · 67%
2
67% acc · 7%
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
4
100% acc · 14%
Leg
0

By position

11
55% acc · 38%
Distance
2
25% acc · 67%
12
67% acc · 41%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
6
55% acc · 21%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brando Pericic rounds
0
even
0
Elisha Ellison rounds
Round 1Brando Pericic edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:29
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
29 / 49
Sig Strikes
3 / 9
59%
Sig Str %
33%
30 / 50
Total Strikes
3 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:29
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Elisha Ellison3 / 93 / 90 / 20
1Brando Pericic29 / 4930 / 500 / 00

Brando Pericic

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights2

Elisha Ellison

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights2