Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brady Hiestand won · SUB R3

Elo1511

Elo1493

Brady HiestandvsGarrett ArmfieldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brady Hiestand won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:52

Style matchupBrady Hiestand: WrestlervsGarrett Armfield: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brady Hiestand wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Brady Hiestand wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brady Hiestand at +230 American odds

+$230 profit

$330 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Garrett Armfield has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brady Hiestand

Red Corner

Garrett Armfield

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-285

(74%)

1511

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brady HiestandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Turcios · Aug 21

vs Fernie Garcia · Nov 22

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Apr 23

latest

Garrett Armfield

oldest →

SUBvs David Onama · Jul 22

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Aug 23

vs Brad Katona · Jan 24

vs Serhiy Sidey · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brady HiestandMetricGarrett Armfield

2.70

Strikes / min

5.35

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

51%

Strike defense

56%

4.80

TDs / 15 min

1.10

42%

Takedown defense

64%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brady HiestandGarrett Armfield

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brady Hiestand(4 fights)Garrett Armfield(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.4|Blue -18.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brady HiestandTargetGarrett Armfield

By target zone

36% acc · 64%

Head

56% acc · 84%

70% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 16%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 82%

Distance

51% acc · 45%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

83% acc · 10%

Ground

65% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brady Hiestand rounds

even

Garrett Armfield rounds

Round 1Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control2:47

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Garrett Armfield edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:32

Knockdowns0

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:52Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:17

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 50

Sig Strikes

49 / 83

47.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

42 / 76

Total Strikes

59 / 94

6 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

47%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:36

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Garrett Armfield	6 / 12	9 / 16	0 / 0	1
1	Brady Hiestand	8 / 17	21 / 33	3 / 7	2
2	Garrett Armfield	41 / 64	48 / 71	0 / 0	0
2	Brady Hiestand	10 / 26	17 / 36	1 / 3	0
3	Garrett Armfield	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Brady Hiestand	4 / 7	4 / 7	2 / 3	1

Brady Hiestand

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Garrett Armfield

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5