Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brady Hiestand won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1484

Brady HiestandvsFernie GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brady Hiestand won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brady Hiestand wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Brady Hiestand wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brady Hiestand at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brady Hiestand has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brady Hiestand

Red Corner

Fernie Garcia

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1511

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brady HiestandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Turcios · Aug 21

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Apr 23

SUBvs Garrett Armfield · Jun 24

latest

Fernie GarciaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Journey Newson · May 22

vs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 23

KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brady HiestandMetricFernie Garcia

2.70

Strikes / min

2.04

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

51%

Strike defense

48%

4.80

TDs / 15 min

0.28

42%

Takedown defense

50%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brady HiestandFernie Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brady Hiestand(4 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.2|Blue -27.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brady HiestandTargetFernie Garcia

By target zone

43% acc · 53%

Head

36% acc · 62%

80% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 5%

83% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

52% acc · 84%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brady Hiestand rounds

even

Fernie Garcia rounds

Round 1Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:25

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control4:24

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 34

Sig Strikes

21 / 44

34%

Sig Str %

44.3%

56 / 82

Total Strikes

86 / 125

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

38.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fernie Garcia	6 / 11	30 / 38	0 / 0	1
1	Brady Hiestand	3 / 9	13 / 24	1 / 3	0
2	Fernie Garcia	14 / 30	28 / 46	1 / 2	0
2	Brady Hiestand	16 / 23	18 / 26	1 / 3	0
3	Fernie Garcia	1 / 3	28 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Brady Hiestand	0 / 2	25 / 32	1 / 2	1

Brady Hiestand

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Fernie Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4