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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1382

Brad TavaresvsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoel Romero (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Yoel Romero

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1481

Elo

1382

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricYoel Romero

3.41

Strikes / min

3.44

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

54%

Strike defense

60%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.57

80%

Takedown defense

78%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.2|Blue -99.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

17% acc · 43%

Head

52% acc · 45%

38% acc · 14%

Body

86% acc · 19%

90% acc · 43%

Leg

79% acc · 35%

By position

25% acc · 76%

Distance

59% acc · 65%

71% acc · 24%

Clinch

77% acc · 32%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Yoel Romero rounds

Round 1Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:27

16Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 2Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:41

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 70

Sig Strikes

31 / 48

31.3%

Sig Str %

62%

35 / 87

Total Strikes

63 / 81

0 / 3

TDs

7 / 12

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

6:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yoel Romero	16 / 23	30 / 38	4 / 4
1	Brad Tavares	6 / 15	10 / 21	0 / 2
2	Yoel Romero	5 / 9	16 / 20	1 / 6
2	Brad Tavares	6 / 21	12 / 28	0 / 0
3	Yoel Romero	10 / 16	17 / 23	2 / 2
3	Brad Tavares	9 / 34	13 / 38	0 / 1

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13