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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1354

Brad TavaresvsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · Saturday, June 19, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Baczynski at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brad Tavares has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Seth Baczynski

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1481

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Neil Magny · Nov 13

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricSeth Baczynski

3.41

Strikes / min

3.08

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.89

80%

Takedown defense

48%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.3|Blue -126.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

45% acc · 72%

Head

50% acc · 73%

100% acc · 22%

Body

43% acc · 14%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

60% acc · 14%

By position

38% acc · 33%

Distance

33% acc · 27%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

54% acc · 32%

73% acc · 61%

Ground

69% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Seth Baczynski rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:54

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:18

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 34

Sig Strikes

22 / 44

57%

Sig Str %

47.7%

54 / 74

Total Strikes

46 / 71

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

61%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:33

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Seth Baczynski	4 / 11	9 / 18	0 / 1	2
1	Brad Tavares	4 / 12	12 / 20	1 / 2	0
2	Seth Baczynski	7 / 15	10 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Brad Tavares	10 / 17	33 / 42	1 / 1	0
3	Seth Baczynski	11 / 18	27 / 35	0 / 1	1
3	Brad Tavares	4 / 5	9 / 12	1 / 3	0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11