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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Brad Tavares
Elo1511
Robert Whittaker editorial illustration

Brad TavaresvsRobert WhittakerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsRobert Whittaker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Whittaker at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Robert Whittaker
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1481
Elo
1511
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24
L
vs JunYong Park · Oct 24
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25
L
KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25
L
vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26
latest
Robert Whittaker
oldest →
W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricRobert Whittaker
3.41
Strikes / min
4.39
3.32
Strikes absorbed / min
3.36
54%
Strike defense
59%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
0.73
80%
Takedown defense
82%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1539Strikes41.9 vs 53.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.4
Brad TavaresRobert Whittaker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Brad Tavares(10 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -30.3|Blue +30.3
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -57.0|Blue +57.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetRobert Whittaker

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
9
75% acc · 90%
0
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

2
29% acc · 100%
Distance
7
64% acc · 70%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Tavares rounds
0
even
1
Robert Whittaker rounds
Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
10 / 14
28%
Sig Str %
71%
2 / 7
Total Strikes
10 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robert Whittaker10 / 1410 / 140 / 00
1Brad Tavares2 / 72 / 70 / 00

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights28

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights26