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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Bryczek won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1490

Brad TavaresvsRobert BryczekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Robert Bryczek won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:43

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsRobert Bryczek: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Robert Bryczek wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Robert Bryczek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Bryczek at +168 American odds

+$168 profit

$268 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Bryczek is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Robert Bryczek

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1481

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad Tavares

oldest →

vs Chris Weidman · Aug 23

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Robert BryczekL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ihor Potieria · Feb 24

DECvs Cam Rowston · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricRobert Bryczek

3.41

Strikes / min

2.80

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.51

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.36

80%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresRobert Bryczek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Robert Bryczek(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.8|Blue +8.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -420.0|Blue +420.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetRobert Bryczek

By target zone

25% acc · 40%

Head

45% acc · 69%

62% acc · 19%

Body

59% acc · 24%

85% acc · 40%

Leg

71% acc · 7%

By position

41% acc · 98%

Distance

43% acc · 63%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

56% acc · 13%

Ground

76% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Robert Bryczek rounds

Round 1Robert Bryczek edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:22

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Robert Bryczek edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 102

Sig Strikes

68 / 138

41.3%

Sig Str %

46.3%

50 / 111

Total Strikes

77 / 149

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Robert Bryczek	39 / 73	48 / 84	1 / 1
1	Brad Tavares	17 / 40	25 / 49	1 / 1
2	Robert Bryczek	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 0
2	Brad Tavares	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 1
3	Robert Bryczek	20 / 37	20 / 37	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 1

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Robert Bryczek

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2