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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1363

Brad TavaresvsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1481

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricNate Marquardt

3.41

Strikes / min

2.71

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.87

80%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.2|Blue -118.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

34% acc · 62%

Head

36% acc · 47%

70% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 20%

67% acc · 24%

Leg

59% acc · 33%

By position

40% acc · 84%

Distance

44% acc · 87%

57% acc · 16%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:27

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 119

Sig Strikes

30 / 64

41.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

57 / 126

Total Strikes

34 / 69

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 7

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Marquardt	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
1	Brad Tavares	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0
2	Nate Marquardt	6 / 14	8 / 17	0 / 4
2	Brad Tavares	14 / 29	20 / 35	1 / 1
3	Nate Marquardt	14 / 28	16 / 30	0 / 3
3	Brad Tavares	24 / 54	25 / 55	0 / 0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14