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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5
Elo1481
Brad Tavares
Elo1464
Israel Adesanya

Brad TavaresvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
  • Israel Adesanya has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Israel Adesanya
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1481
Elo
1464
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24
L
vs JunYong Park · Oct 24
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25
L
KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25
L
vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26
latest
Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23
L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricIsrael Adesanya
3.41
Strikes / min
4.03
3.32
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
54%
Strike defense
55%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
0.05
80%
Takedown defense
76%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1619 vs 1536Strikes41.0 vs 54.5Takedowns0.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Brad TavaresIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Brad Tavares(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +16.3|Blue -16.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

34
21% acc · 85%
Head
61
42% acc · 51%
3
38% acc · 8%
Body
21
72% acc · 18%
3
100% acc · 8%
Leg
37
88% acc · 31%

By position

37
23% acc · 93%
Distance
99
52% acc · 83%
1
13% acc · 3%
Clinch
12
86% acc · 10%
2
100% acc · 5%
Ground
8
89% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Tavares rounds
0
even
5
Israel Adesanya rounds
Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:25
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:13
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:15
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 4Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:12
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 5Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
40 / 174
Sig Strikes
119 / 215
23.6%
Sig Str %
55.2%
46 / 181
Total Strikes
127 / 223
1 / 12
TDs
0 / 2
10%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
2:05
Ctrl Time
1:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Israel Adesanya14 / 3514 / 350 / 00
1Brad Tavares9 / 3611 / 380 / 10
2Israel Adesanya25 / 4925 / 490 / 10
2Brad Tavares8 / 308 / 300 / 20
3Israel Adesanya27 / 5028 / 510 / 10
3Brad Tavares9 / 5410 / 550 / 10
4Brad Tavares8 / 2811 / 321 / 20
4Israel Adesanya28 / 3732 / 410 / 00
5Israel Adesanya25 / 4428 / 470 / 01
5Brad Tavares6 / 266 / 260 / 60

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights28

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19