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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Brad TavaresvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:55

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1481

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Weidman · Aug 23

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricGregory Rodrigues

3.41

Strikes / min

5.53

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

54%

Strike defense

50%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.90

80%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.5|Blue +67.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

40% acc · 76%

Head

52% acc · 75%

44% acc · 11%

Body

89% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

83% acc · 14%

By position

43% acc · 97%

Distance

56% acc · 90%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

78% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 84

Sig Strikes

71 / 123

41.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

42 / 90

Total Strikes

79 / 135

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gregory Rodrigues	25 / 49	29 / 55	1 / 3
1	Brad Tavares	14 / 30	19 / 36	0 / 0
2	Gregory Rodrigues	22 / 40	26 / 46	1 / 3
2	Brad Tavares	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Gregory Rodrigues	24 / 34	24 / 34	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13