← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1457

Brad TavaresvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Meerschaert at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brad Tavares has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1481

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL4 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Weidman · Aug 23

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.41

Strikes / min

2.95

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.70

80%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.1|Blue -24.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

34% acc · 62%

Head

41% acc · 71%

67% acc · 26%

Body

70% acc · 18%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

57% acc · 11%

By position

43% acc · 96%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:01

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:31Control

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 109

Sig Strikes

38 / 83

40.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

56 / 118

Total Strikes

51 / 97

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gerald Meerschaert	8 / 24	8 / 24	0 / 2
1	Brad Tavares	13 / 36	14 / 37	0 / 0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	23 / 44	23 / 45	0 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	26 / 51	26 / 51	0 / 0
3	Gerald Meerschaert	7 / 15	20 / 28	0 / 5
3	Brad Tavares	8 / 22	16 / 30	0 / 0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25