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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Eryk Anders won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1512

Brad TavaresvsEryk AndersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Eryk Anders won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsEryk Anders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Eryk Anders wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Eryk Anders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eryk Anders at -132 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eryk Anders is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Eryk Anders (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Eryk Anders

Blue Corner

+112

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1481

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad Tavares

oldest →

vs Chris Weidman · Aug 23

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

latest

Eryk Anders

oldest →

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Dec 22

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 24

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricEryk Anders

3.41

Strikes / min

3.44

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

54%

Strike defense

50%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.83

80%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresEryk Anders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Eryk Anders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.2|Blue +31.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetEryk Anders

By target zone

45% acc · 60%

Head

38% acc · 74%

85% acc · 35%

Body

60% acc · 26%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 65%

Distance

32% acc · 43%

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

53% acc · 54%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Eryk Anders rounds

Round 1Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:10Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:25Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Eryk Anders edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 86

Sig Strikes

35 / 84

56.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

55 / 95

Total Strikes

68 / 133

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 9

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

9:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eryk Anders	20 / 41	33 / 56	0 / 4
1	Brad Tavares	18 / 35	18 / 35	0 / 0
2	Eryk Anders	11 / 31	22 / 52	0 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	18 / 31	21 / 34	0 / 0
3	Eryk Anders	4 / 12	13 / 25	3 / 4
3	Brad Tavares	12 / 20	16 / 26	0 / 1

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Eryk Anders

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19