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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1492

Brad TavaresvsElias TheodorouUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsElias Theodorou: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Elias Theodorou

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1481

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Cezar Ferreira · Feb 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricElias Theodorou

3.41

Strikes / min

4.19

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.27

80%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresElias Theodorou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Elias Theodorou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +162.0|Blue -162.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetElias Theodorou

By target zone

32% acc · 58%

Head

35% acc · 53%

89% acc · 26%

Body

30% acc · 18%

83% acc · 16%

Leg

91% acc · 29%

By position

34% acc · 55%

Distance

33% acc · 59%

67% acc · 45%

Clinch

65% acc · 38%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Elias Theodorou rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:40

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:25

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:01

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 71

Sig Strikes

34 / 82

35.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

34 / 74

Total Strikes

64 / 113

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 7

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elias Theodorou	9 / 33	17 / 41	0 / 1
1	Brad Tavares	13 / 30	13 / 30	1 / 1
2	Elias Theodorou	20 / 41	35 / 56	1 / 2
2	Brad Tavares	17 / 34	18 / 35	0 / 2
3	Elias Theodorou	5 / 8	12 / 16	2 / 4
3	Brad Tavares	1 / 7	3 / 9	0 / 0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11