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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dricus Du Plessis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Brad TavaresvsDricus Du PlessisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsDricus Du Plessis: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(89.1%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Dricus Du Plessis

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1481

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricDricus Du Plessis

3.41

Strikes / min

5.18

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

2.22

80%

Takedown defense

34%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresDricus Du Plessis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.2|Blue +61.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetDricus Du Plessis

By target zone

49% acc · 67%

Head

47% acc · 70%

68% acc · 26%

Body

81% acc · 15%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

77% acc · 15%

By position

52% acc · 84%

Distance

51% acc · 86%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

78% acc · 12%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

Round 1Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:58

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

60Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 150

Sig Strikes

113 / 212

60.3%

Sig Str %

53%

98 / 167

Total Strikes

123 / 222

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 7

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dricus Du Plessis	14 / 26	23 / 35	0 / 6
1	Brad Tavares	10 / 13	25 / 29	0 / 0
2	Dricus Du Plessis	39 / 75	39 / 75	0 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	33 / 59	33 / 59	0 / 0
3	Dricus Du Plessis	60 / 111	61 / 112	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	39 / 78	40 / 79	0 / 1

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11