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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · S-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1358

Brad TavaresvsCaio MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsCaio Magalhaes: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Caio Magalhaes wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Magalhaes at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caio Magalhaes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brad Tavares has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Caio Magalhaes

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1481

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Caio Magalhaes

oldest →

SUBvs Karlos Vemola · Jun 13

vs Nick Ring · Dec 13

KOvs Luke Zachrich · Apr 14

KOvs Trevor Smith · Nov 14

SUBvs Josh Samman · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricCaio Magalhaes

3.41

Strikes / min

2.27

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.05

80%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresCaio Magalhaes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Caio Magalhaes(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.9|Blue -122.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetCaio Magalhaes

By target zone

32% acc · 46%

Head

23% acc · 46%

56% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 38%

84% acc · 35%

Leg

44% acc · 15%

By position

38% acc · 65%

Distance

28% acc · 77%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

67% acc · 23%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Caio Magalhaes rounds

Round 1Caio Magalhaes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:10

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:36

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:14

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 100

Sig Strikes

26 / 81

42.3%

Sig Str %

35%

58 / 112

Total Strikes

39 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Caio Magalhaes	9 / 18	13 / 23	0 / 2	0
1	Brad Tavares	8 / 23	16 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Caio Magalhaes	8 / 25	12 / 29	1 / 3	0
2	Brad Tavares	11 / 29	13 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Caio Magalhaes	9 / 38	14 / 43	0 / 2	1
3	Brad Tavares	27 / 48	29 / 50	0 / 0	0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Caio Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7