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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Bruno Silva won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1481
Brad Tavares
Elo1453
Bruno Silva

Brad TavaresvsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bruno Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:35

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Bruno Silva wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Bruno Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bruno Silva at +136 American odds

+$136 profit

$236 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bruno Silva is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Brad Tavares has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Bruno Silva
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+136
(42%)
1481
Elo
1453
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24
L
vs JunYong Park · Oct 24
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25
L
KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25
L
vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26
latest
Bruno SilvaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25
L
KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25
W
SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25
L
vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26
L
SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricBruno Silva
3.41
Strikes / min
3.86
3.32
Strikes absorbed / min
5.35
54%
Strike defense
41%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
0.77
80%
Takedown defense
74%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1587 vs 1522Strikes3.4 vs 4.1Takedowns0.8 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs 0.3
Brad TavaresBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Brad Tavares(10 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +27.6|Blue -27.6
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +252.0|Blue -252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

11
20% acc · 73%
Head
17
43% acc · 74%
4
50% acc · 27%
Body
5
56% acc · 22%
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 4%

By position

15
23% acc · 100%
Distance
21
44% acc · 91%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 4%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Tavares rounds
0
even
1
Bruno Silva rounds
Round 1Bruno Silva edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
15 / 64
Sig Strikes
23 / 51
23%
Sig Str %
45%
15 / 65
Total Strikes
24 / 52
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bruno Silva23 / 5124 / 520 / 00
1Brad Tavares15 / 6415 / 650 / 00

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights28

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights23