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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC

Elo1481

Elo1395

Brad TavaresvsAntonio Carlos JuniorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsAntonio Carlos Junior: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carlos Junior at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Tavares has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Antonio Carlos Junior has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Antonio Carlos Junior

Blue Corner

-134

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1481

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Antonio Carlos JuniorL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 16

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricAntonio Carlos Junior

3.41

Strikes / min

1.95

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

3.42

80%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresAntonio Carlos Junior

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.0|Blue -86.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetAntonio Carlos Junior

By target zone

37% acc · 52%

Head

26% acc · 71%

75% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 6%

83% acc · 37%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

49% acc · 93%

Distance

33% acc · 97%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:05

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 108

Sig Strikes

34 / 103

48.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

73 / 135

Total Strikes

57 / 135

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 12

—

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

6:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	9 / 30	21 / 44	0 / 3
1	Brad Tavares	9 / 26	12 / 31	0 / 0
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	11 / 34	14 / 40	1 / 4
2	Brad Tavares	25 / 49	25 / 49	0 / 0
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	14 / 39	22 / 51	0 / 5
3	Brad Tavares	20 / 33	36 / 55	0 / 0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11